Neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump is the sitting president, but both enjoy certain perquisites of incumbency. What can U.S. history teach us about what might happen in November?
As always, beautifully said and thoughtful. One thing one might add to your analysis of Trump's seemingly inexplicable, ongoing appeal to so many is the acceleration of technological change that has occurred in the last few years, AI in particular. Even those who study it don't seem to be comfortable predicting how it will affect the world of work. For the many less tuned in, I suspect it nevertheless creates an inchoate fear as to their own future relevance, and fear drives the Trump bus. These same people don't really follow the news closely, or if they do, it's through the lens of the right-wing media, and so don't remember what they never registered happening in the first place. Thus, they don't recognize Trump's mad fictions for what they are and glom onto his politics of othering, which allows them to put their fears in a context they can understand and pretend to a solution. You can't get rid of AI, though it may get rid of you, but you can get rid of immigrants.
Good research & smart theme for an essay kicking off the final phase of 2024. Surprised, though, not to see what I consider the best-case analogy to 2024, namely 1960. Nixon had the advantage of 8 years as VP of popular Eisenhower, but Kennedy had the youthful, joyous vibe & fresher face. This caused the younger (20s, 30s, 40s) voters to see McCarthyist Nixon as the downbeat, older, familiar, less attractive actor even though JFK was as much a McCarthy fellow-traveler. This year, Harris has the 1960 Nixon advantage of incumbency behind a steady old POTUS but also the freshness & positive energy of JFK.
Trump is doing what he can to simulate incumbency but he has too much baggage. He can't pivot from being the 2015-2024 hog of the spotlights, the age-afflicted outsider attacking the Deep State or from his sponsorship of the hapless, Nixon-like villain Vance. His energy has always been & still is relentlessly negative. Americans who aren't effectively sick of Trump are in any event truly exhausted by Trump's endless revanchist personality. Except for his cult & the million-dollar annual income minority, the US is well & truly tired of him.
Advantages, Harris. Now all (!) we have to do is overcome the cheating, local rigging & covert foreign interference on Trump's side. This is the non-political wild card again.
I look forward to watching in the coming weeks as his MAGA supporters shut up and peel off... And all of his lickspittle politicians hemorrhage away --as they realize that the Dotard is dooming all their own dreams of power!
That’s an interesting point about incumbency and an interesting history lesson. But we’re not going back, and you’ve convinced me that even looking back is largely irrelevant in this case.
"...the legacy media being in the bag for Donald,..."
Greg, very interesting and informative substack. The above quote presents an interesting dilemma for MSM. I cannot see the editorial boards of the likes of the Grey Lady, WaPo and WSJ endorsing dipshit 45. They can assert that editorial is separate from the newsroom but the constant support for 45 must give the editorial board a headache. I could be wrong and find all three doing the unthinkable, endorsing 45! In the end I doubt what they do will matter as most people have lost faith in MSM, many of us have our news bubbles that don't include them.
Regarding a 1932 reprise, from your pen to God's ears. I am frightened to think so for fear of jinxing the outcome. The old Wall Street adage keeps haunting me, "past performance is not predictive of future results".
As you’ve so aptly said, most of us no longer include the corporate media as our news sources. They have managed to make themselves irrelevant to many.
In other words, Donold is the perfect present day representative of the gop...a flake a best.
Meemaw, I blinked and disagreed with a WHAT?!? was Hillary Clinton just erased? Top of the tkt in 2016 winning the popular vote.
5th paragraph beginning with ‘Oh…’
Greg, a slight huge omission at the end of it….And, I’m a super fan of yours.
I'll repeat what I said above: I knew I screwed something up in that sentence. Grrr. And: duh. Not enough sleep. Thanks for pointing it out.
(I love HRC, btw, so particularly dumb).
You’re never d-u-m-b. Ever. Typos maybe, plus that d word belongs to too many other people so you can’t have it!
I knew I screwed something up in that sentence. Grrr. And: duh. Not enough sleep. Thanks for pointing it out.
Take a nap and rephrase. As always I love your optimism! This big fan of yours is on her way to town hall to straighten out Mommy's mail in ballot...🙄
Good morning! Looks like a 👌🏼 perfect way to start today ☕️!
It’s TUESDAY🎉
Excellent essay Greg. Thanks, as always!
My fav from today's Prevail: "Trump is a ball and chain—or, if you will, a sex offender’s ankle monitor—on the leg of the Republican Party."
Brilliant!!!
As always, beautifully said and thoughtful. One thing one might add to your analysis of Trump's seemingly inexplicable, ongoing appeal to so many is the acceleration of technological change that has occurred in the last few years, AI in particular. Even those who study it don't seem to be comfortable predicting how it will affect the world of work. For the many less tuned in, I suspect it nevertheless creates an inchoate fear as to their own future relevance, and fear drives the Trump bus. These same people don't really follow the news closely, or if they do, it's through the lens of the right-wing media, and so don't remember what they never registered happening in the first place. Thus, they don't recognize Trump's mad fictions for what they are and glom onto his politics of othering, which allows them to put their fears in a context they can understand and pretend to a solution. You can't get rid of AI, though it may get rid of you, but you can get rid of immigrants.
Very interesting and extremely well-written historical perspective. Thank you, Greg.
A glimmer of hope is just what I need. Thanks
Good research & smart theme for an essay kicking off the final phase of 2024. Surprised, though, not to see what I consider the best-case analogy to 2024, namely 1960. Nixon had the advantage of 8 years as VP of popular Eisenhower, but Kennedy had the youthful, joyous vibe & fresher face. This caused the younger (20s, 30s, 40s) voters to see McCarthyist Nixon as the downbeat, older, familiar, less attractive actor even though JFK was as much a McCarthy fellow-traveler. This year, Harris has the 1960 Nixon advantage of incumbency behind a steady old POTUS but also the freshness & positive energy of JFK.
Trump is doing what he can to simulate incumbency but he has too much baggage. He can't pivot from being the 2015-2024 hog of the spotlights, the age-afflicted outsider attacking the Deep State or from his sponsorship of the hapless, Nixon-like villain Vance. His energy has always been & still is relentlessly negative. Americans who aren't effectively sick of Trump are in any event truly exhausted by Trump's endless revanchist personality. Except for his cult & the million-dollar annual income minority, the US is well & truly tired of him.
Advantages, Harris. Now all (!) we have to do is overcome the cheating, local rigging & covert foreign interference on Trump's side. This is the non-political wild card again.
I look forward to watching in the coming weeks as his MAGA supporters shut up and peel off... And all of his lickspittle politicians hemorrhage away --as they realize that the Dotard is dooming all their own dreams of power!
Great column today, Greg, screwups included. Let’s beat the shit outta of this guy and his insufferable regime! # YES WE KAM
That’s an interesting point about incumbency and an interesting history lesson. But we’re not going back, and you’ve convinced me that even looking back is largely irrelevant in this case.
Sex and color will give Harris the winning numbers.
Again I think the Crazies will try and put the election decesion in the House of Representatives and that they will forment violence.
"...the legacy media being in the bag for Donald,..."
Greg, very interesting and informative substack. The above quote presents an interesting dilemma for MSM. I cannot see the editorial boards of the likes of the Grey Lady, WaPo and WSJ endorsing dipshit 45. They can assert that editorial is separate from the newsroom but the constant support for 45 must give the editorial board a headache. I could be wrong and find all three doing the unthinkable, endorsing 45! In the end I doubt what they do will matter as most people have lost faith in MSM, many of us have our news bubbles that don't include them.
Regarding a 1932 reprise, from your pen to God's ears. I am frightened to think so for fear of jinxing the outcome. The old Wall Street adage keeps haunting me, "past performance is not predictive of future results".
As you’ve so aptly said, most of us no longer include the corporate media as our news sources. They have managed to make themselves irrelevant to many.
From your keyboard to all the gods’ ears Greg 🤞🏻🤞🏻.