Dec 19, 2023·edited Dec 19, 2023Liked by Greg Olear
Oh, man. You had to know I would weigh in here, given that I am a professional consulting astrologer and a former health economics and antitrust reporter. I get what you're trying to say about the perfidy of the dark wizardry that is economics -- we even talked about this on the last podcast of mine on which you guested: the Chicago School was a circle jerk, nothing more.
BUT! To say that economists are malevalent astrologers is painful for me to read, Friend. It debases what is a spiritual language. Economics is indeed as you describe it: data collection creatively interpreted.
Astrology doesn't need us. It is the language of the heavens, of the planets, of nature, and most important to note is that it exists whether or not we engage with it. It has its own laws and truths that we can never, ever change. Never.
Economics is always derived from the perimeters humans give it. Full stop.
As for your larger point about Biden, you and I overlap on this, but here's why I agree with your conclusion, even if I think your metaphor is deeply, deeply flawed: inflation is NOT REAL in that it is not organic. Supply and demand is also chicanery. There is nothing organic about it, either, because there is always someone behind the scenes tightening the grip on resources. Inflation is a way to control humans via labor, or shortages. It is a manipulation of our fears. And the supine media, as you brilliantly characterize them, is complicit in this lie.
And as an astrologer, I will tell you that as we have just passed the US Pluto return and will now be disoriented even more as Pluto soon enters Aquarius for the next two decades, to whom we give our authority to rule over our resources is about to get a real kick in the ass. Prediction: in 20 years, economics will be VERY different. It will measure wholly different outcomes, and we will see what utter bullshit we've been subjected to since Reaganomics.
Love ya, man.
xx
PS: Jupiter in the 4th house would, depending up on the conditions of Jupiter (retrograde, aspected by other planets, etc), and the sign placement, more likely indicate abundance for the country, and not labor conditions, an ironic note given your ultimate point about what Biden has done for the nation. x
NOT ALL ECONOMISTS!!!! There are plenty of excellent ones, alive and dead, who I have read and learned from and who know stuff.
Obviously, I'm using the comparison a bit tongue in cheek, but the quote is too awesome not to use. I enjoyed it because it assumes that astrology is either inherently good or at worst neutral, and thus the modifier is required.
Your point about economics being human and not stellar is dead-on. But both requite leaps of faith.
Jupiter is the Great Beatific, and the Fourth House controls the home. So: good things!
Pluto rules the underworld, which means Hades but also the criminal underworld, so I guess this makes sense...
Yeah, I can walk back the castigation of all economists. But the ones who suck are malevolent economists, not malevolent astrologers. Not having actually read the work of your source who coined the term, I will say my impression is that she has a low opinion of astrologers, which is why she used them to characterize shitty economists. Ergo, I would say she is wrong to begin with, because she is starting from a negative judgement of astrologers.
My bottom line here is that the subjects described by astrology are outside of human control. Economics is entirely within human control and so derive any power over our behavior based on how the data reflect the values of those in power, the ones who make the rules. Economics can manipulate us into behaviors that are not innately true to who we are. The celestial realm doesn't give a shit what we think of it and how we want to manipulate it. It won't agree to our whims.
As for either astrology or economics being a leap of faith...not really. The only accurate body of data in either field is that which is based on observational data, and that is the key. Data derived from controlled experiments or perimeters used to frame certain outcomes are all synthetic. Whereas, not one single human being can accurately say the sun rises in the west. Observations of the behavior of the sun confirm otherwise. That is why astrology, an entire field predicated solely on observational data is irrefutable, dependable, and belieavable. Economics is a perspective. Astrology is not.
Pluto also rules wealth, (the origin of the word plutocracy), and the underworld also refers to what is under the Earth, like natural resources such as oil, natural gas, and minerals.
Don't forget to include in your analysis about negative reaction to the economy: student loan repayment, after a 3.5 year pause, has had a recent (October 2023) huge & dramatic impact on people's budgets & reminded all of the long term dread knowing repayment will take years!
The student loan debt forgiveness was a wonderful thing for many millions of people and, as you point out, for the economy. But it's nuanced, and therefore easy to weaponize by the GOP. "Why should people not have to pay back loans? YOU have to pay back YOUR loan!" etc. That's another thing GOP will hit him with in the debates (if there are debates).
And let’s not forget the millions in federal tax refunds that FPOTUS got because of his business acumen in bankrupting casinos, sticking his investors with losses, and tinged with fraudulent valuations on properties for which Judge Engeron has already found him, the boys and the Trump Organization liable.
I will note that if everyone read the rules for those student loan repayments, that those persons had to have paid on the loan for 20-25 years already, with virtually no missed payments. There are other fairly stringent rules as well. It's not just a straight payoff. And they never mention the backside much...that when those persons spend that money it radiates out into the economy at a high rate (5X), so it is expansionary, and creates more tax dollars in the local and ultimately the national economy.
I remember thinking, at the time of the TARP in 08 when we bailed out the banks, what would happen if we instead used the money to pay off the credit card debt of every American. What will have more of a positive effect? I don't know the answer.
Those persons bailed out would have spent most of that money and the economy would have expanded, much of that money and those transactions going through the banks, so they would have had some benefit. However, that would have encouraged more of a credit economy - literally spending beyond you means - when, I think, raising wages could have the same effect...without the interest going to a middle man.
Credit for large scale purchases is one thing - and historically the role of credit for individuals as well as governments. Credit for household commodities - washing machines, say - and regular purchases is a rather modern invention. Or to put it another way, if there is a means to grab your money, someone here will have found it soon.
New York was pretty much the center of that idea and process, so it is really a key part of your culture in a quite visible historic way.
Student loan repayment should tap out at say, 10 years. How long is too long? $200k plus to our youth?! Paying it off the rest of their lives?! That's actually sickening.
To have an 18 year old child take on such an enormous debt for education is a disservice to the economy. Having an education is to the betterment of society. Not only that but some of the loan companies themselves are shady/crooked. I have stories.
I hold three degrees, from California institutions of higher learning, from which I graduated not owing a dime in student debt. That was when the state of California thought educating the population was a good investment in the future - before Republican governors Reagan and Deukmejian and Wilson came along to kill the goose that laid the golden eggs because We Have Ours And Fuck You! I like to think California got a pretty good return on their investment in me, and would do so again with Gen Z if they restored that policy, the original work of Pat Brown, father of Jerry the Pissant.
Even in my day, which is the early 90s, the CA university system was the model for the country. I don't understand how very rich people want to ruin everything and think that makes life better.
Dec 20, 2023·edited Dec 20, 2023Liked by Greg Olear
It makes them feel more special, that they Have It and You Don't.
I used to be involved with the Planes of Fame Air Museum, the place that's responsible for the fact there are any flying World War II airplanes left. It used to be a community, and whether you were a pilot or a plane pusher or a wing polisher, or took tickets at the gate for the annual airshow, you were invited to the big party in the hangar after that airshow. Free. But then the Rich Kidz discovered they could buy Kool Airplanez, In 2017, after Ed Maloney the founder died, I decided to do a volunteer stint at that year's show in his memory (we were good friends for 40 years). When I went over to the hangar after the show, there was armed security at the door, telling me "This party is for the owners only." I left and never went back. (Too many Trumpers in Old Airplane World anyway)
My wife's late uncle managed some sort of WW2 airplane museum in Slippery Rock, Pa. Not sure how he felt about Trump, but he was a college professor, so I expect he felt like Trump was an asshole.
From what I've seen, Gen Z has a different view of college than the last two generations. They seem to be savvier about it. Maybe the market turning against the colleges will prompt some change.
Yeah, something has to change bc the amount my spouse & I pay in loans each month is wrong. We've been out of school a long time, we've paid back what would be the principal of the loan and then some and then some. How are they going to charge that type of interest to the youth?
Everyone prior to my generation had college paid for/paid off and the college system was like," go ahead take out loans, you'll pay them back easily"...bc they had. It's just wrong.
Greg, you are amazing. I feel as though I have just passed a college class. And my personal opinions mirror yours about voting, but I do have a lot to say about food prices. I, too, am keeping a cat alive by catering to his ever-changing tastes and may need to hit my daughter up for cat support since it’s her cat technically. But that’s not my overall concern. I have been aghast for years about the incredibly complicated process of supermarket shopping. Way too many choices. Keeping your purchases to staples and avoiding crap helps both your pocketbook and your waistline. And walking to the store or at least from the far reaches of the parking lot helps too. Keeping the focus on myself and the present day. Thanks again for the free education.
Thanks, Katharine. The supermarket is like the streaming services, where you're going one place for one thing and another place for another. It's exhausting.
And Lucky Ting returns the greeting. He got that name when my daughter found him in the engine compartment of the car she had just driven to her local Chinese restaurant in Brooklyn. Ting was too wild for City living which is why I inherited him, and he has thrived all these years as an outdoor/indoor cat and has become a great lap sitter in his old age. Cat people for Biden!!
I'm pretty sure I'm less qualified to read about astrology than you professed to be about writing about it but I know how to read corporate public profit statements and it reeks of corporate greed and profiteering. But Im like a Biden anti-MAGA and will vote for Uncle Joe as long as The Tangerine Turd draws breath, bigly. If the democrats find themselves having to legitimately defend Biden over Trump then we are fucked either way.
True, true. Rachel Slade -- my guest on this coming week's podcast -- and I talked about the corporate greed problem. Capitalism needs a tweak, or we're all literally doomed.
Maddening how DeJoy has lasted, due to byzantine rules of the USPS. Powell has done his job, far as I can tell. The Fed is concerned with managing inflation, and he's done that as well as can be done.
Powell has wreaked havoc on the lower end of the middle class and destitute, while enriching the Uber-wealthy… several respected economists, even those here at Substack would concur! The money trust is ecstatic, which speaks volumes!
Dejoy was a pawn of a puppet master, his fuckery was deliberate for the upcoming election for the orange fuckface!!
I read an op-ed in the NYT this morning by Mara Gay. She went down to Georgia and spoke with voters who are mad about the economy. They’re mad at Biden because the stimulus checks they GOT FROM TRUMP stopped flowing (no mention of the one Joe sent their way). Their anger, however, seems to actually stem from the fact that they live in Georgia and their Republican government sucks and doesn’t do anything for them. I wish there were some way to impress upon people that the federal government gives money to the states and the state governments decide on which programs to bestow this money, not the president. If people are angry, perhaps they should look closer to home rather than focusing all of their ire at the very top.
The GOP politicians are masterful at claiming credit for what the Dems achieve, and blaming them for problems they themselves create. And too many voters don't understand this. It's very frustrating.
I was telling my roommate about the NYT op-ed this morning and he had a very interesting take (to me, at least). I’m a Yankee from Connecticut and while I’ve lived all over America, my sensibilities are very “liberal-progressive New Englander” and I view the world through this lens. My roomie, on the other hand, is from Speaker Johnson’s district in Louisiana. His entire family still lives there and until we moved to Connecticut in 2020, he’d never lived outside the south (his other residence was in Mobile, Alabama). So, anyway, his stance on all of the perception stuff is that state government control has always been Republican. They’ve ruled the south with an iron fist for decades and most people have never known anything different. When the only office that regularly changes hands in which you have some semblance of “direct control” is the presidency, it results in totally off the charts expectations for what a president can do for them.
(As an aside, 90% of the reason my roomie was eager to get out of the south was the regressive politics. It’s very hard to be a liberal Liberal in Shreveport.)
Georgia currently has a budget surplus in the billions. I've read that there's talk of Gov. Kemp floating some money off to various school systems to put towards " security" & the like. No gun bills passed here to stem the tide of certain types of guns used often in mass killings, in particular....schools; so now we'll use significant $$ towards shoring up security?? Why not free money towards bills that provide improving access to mental health treatment & feeding hungry kids, providing better educational outcomes for our children, which might eventually provide better job opportunities for young people. Not everyone is moving on towards higher education. More tech schools perhaps. We always will need tradesmen, electricians, plumbers & mechanics as well as accountants. It's good to have options in education.
I reside in Georgia, after leaving Florida 18 years ago & New England 38 years ago. Back then, education wise, culture wise, it almost felt like I'd moved to a foreign country. The warmer weather & at the time, more reasonable housing prices kept me here. But in many ways, I still feel at times that folks sensibilities & life concerns don't track with mine at all. Less a sense or concerns about social responsibility, in my opinion here, than I'd felt growing up in the North. Appears to be more of a willingness to follow conspiracy theories & fake stories . And I am not talking about poorly educated people necessarily. A bit concerning at times.
I remain surprised that Kemp, who seems so awful and corrupt, did not go in with Trump on the schemes. Never would have predicted that.
There is a huge mental health crisis in this country, because of the pandemic. It's going to cost us a lot of resources later on if we don't address it now.
Greg, You are dead on correct! People imo, operate on feelings more than facts. And yes, interest rates need to go down next year, so those holding off buying homes can feel good about a more affordable monthly house payment!!! Then perhaps they will feel better about a vote for President Biden as well in 2024. People respond to how something impacts their own lives specifically & not what the charts & the chart pointers say!
In the mid 90s, Clinton made student loan debt interest tax deductible -- the first instance I can recall of the federal government doing something that impacted me personally in a real way. People tend to remember this stuff. THat's why the GOP takes great pains to take credit from Democratic policies that are popular.
It's the economy, stupid. NOT!!! Greg you said better than I can what I have been telling friends who ask the question why isn't Biden getting credit for a great economy. As you point out when the payments on ones variable rate mortgage rise, gas and groceries cost more, don't give me macroeconomic bullshit. Microeconomics, not a correct term but it will do matters, that is what we pay. Paychecks magically, almost unnoticed, therefore less relevant hit our bank account but each time we pull out the debit or credit card, very relevant outgoings matters.
This said 2024 is much less about the economy and much more about the immigration versus abortion. Listen to Lindsey Graham on Meet the Press. Should Republicans refocus on the Economy I believe they must feel they are losing on the immigration versus abortion issue, for me a good sign. Dems do need a better answer on this, spreadsheet talk is not the way to go. It could have been worse loses all the time. Perhaps focusing on 45's miserable economic performance, only the 1% benefited will work. Make people like auto workers know that under Biden real gains occurred. Joe didn't do it but he sure helped. Make people notice that the paycheck that arrives unnoticed is bigger than at any time under 45, as they say in song, accentuate the positive when needed.
One of the papers had a while thing about how the GOP was going to focus on immigration, as they always do. Will people still thrill to that overplayed single from years ago? I still think Dobbs effectively ended any chance of Trump winning. That has such a profound effect, a real effect, on so many families, and we're going to hear horror stories all the way through November of pregnant woman being abused by the states.
Great essay Greg! When I hear people bitching about the interest rate I tell them our first mortgage rate was around 12.5% ! I realize houses cost a lot more now but maybe it’s time to rethink what you really need. 3,000 sf home or will 2,000 sf suffice? Also part of the interest rate policy was dfg’s doing as he was putting pressure on Powell to go lower. Cheap money was helping trump’s bottom line and that was all that mattered to him!!
I remember those times, even though I was a kid. There is a theory that it's better to buy a house when the interest rates are high,, because the sales price will be lower, and you can always refinance later. But overall, lower is better, at least for real estate.
A lot of houses are being scooped up by soulless corporations, which then charge insane rent. Feudalism 2.0. That's not great either.
I almost threw up when I opened my Economics 101 book at the U of Miami in 1958. I naively thought that it would be an easy course. The chart on the inside cover was incomprehensible. I squeaked out a C grade.
I wrote this essay a few years ago. I confess - I’m not an economist.
HOOKERS, $100 BILLS, ECONOMICS, DERIVED DEPOSITS
By billserle16 February, 2014
I WANT TO TELL YOU ABOUT HOOKERS, $100 BILLS, ECONOMICS, DERIVED DEPOSITS AND OTHER GOOD AND INTERESTING THINGS.. HERE’S HOW THEY FIT TOGETHER.
I went to work in the installment loan department of the First National Bank of Miami in 1959. I stayed there for almost eight years working in a number of progressively more responsible jobs. This was the largest bank in the State of Florida with 1,000 employees under the same roof – it was before branch banking was permitted in the state.
They gave new employees classes on Wednesdays in the nice meeting room in the Personnel Department. (This is before we discovered Human Resources.)
One lesson was about Derived Deposits – Meaning that when we made a loan, the funds would wind up in a bank somewhere in town. If it was a cash loan the customer might cash the check and walk out but, before the day was done, it would be used to buy a washing machine, pay a doctor, buy a scooter or whatever comes to your mind. The money would mingle with other funds and go into someone’s bank account. Maybe even in our own bank. So we never minded when a customer took his loan proceeds as cash. We’d get it back eventually to loan again to another deserving customer.
By the way I met my wife Daisy over the phone while working at the bank. She and her first husband George Kruntz were expecting a baby at any moment when they applied by phone for a $300.00 loan to help with hospital expenses. They didn’t meet the bank’s stringent standards for an unsecured loan and I lucked out to be the one to call and turn them down.
She was really mad when I gave her the “no” news. She gave me a bawling out that I remember to this day. Sadly she and George had to go without the First National’s money. I recommended Beneficial Finance Company when she paused to think of some other names to call me.
We met in person in 1967 at work and married in 1974. It was probably 1999 or so when we remembered that conversation. She got mad again!
HERE’S THE STORY ABOUT THE $100.00 BILL ~
It’s a slow day in a little West Texas town.
The sun is beating down, and the streets are deserted.
Times are tough, everybody is in debt, and everybody lives on credit.
On this particular day a rich tourist from back east is driving through town. He stops at the motel and lays a $100 bill on the desk saying he wants to inspect the rooms upstairs in order to pick one to spend the night. As soon as the man walks upstairs, the owner grabs the bill and runs next door to pay his debt to the butcher.
The butcher takes the $100 and runs down the street to retire his debt to the pig farmer.
The pig farmer takes the $100 and heads off to pay his bill at the supplier of feed and fuel.
The guy at the Farmer’s Co-op takes the $100 and runs to pay his debt to the local prostitute, who has also been facing hard times and has had to offer her “services” on credit.
The hooker rushes to the hotel and pays off her room bill with the hotel owner.
The hotel proprietor then places the $100 back on the counter so the rich traveler will not suspect anything. At that moment the traveler comes down the stairs, picks up the $100 bill, states that the rooms are not satisfactory, pockets the money, and leaves town.
No one produced anything.
No one earned anything.
However, the whole town is now out of debt and looks to the future with optimism. That is how the world sometimes conducts business. THE HOOKERS DERIVED EARNINGS SAVED THE DAY!
Well, Greg, like everything else, you will have a lot of negativity about this article, just as negativity weighs us down each day from journo's and MSM. Wet blankets smother out even the good warm feelings. Thanks. There is a dark side to Astrology. Check out the lunar nodes and the upcoming solstice.
Don't I know it! But I need to call it out now, so hopefully they can see what the issues are going to be. Sometimes the campaign has been slow to see where they will be taking heat from.
This is top notch writing and perspective on a traditionally wonky topic. Your thinking and articulation have always been a welcome read, but this is your best yet.
The last few years have been rough, but it is definitely better now, and will be even better next year. What seems to be getting worse is the ignorant perception of what is actually happening under Biden's guidance.
Several years ago we had a House that was kicking ass because it was controlled by Democrats, and a Senate that was sometimes workable. Now we have Republican jackasses controlling the House and nothing at all is getting done. Clueless people want to pin that on Biden, and the media is like "ok, that will sell clicks and newspapers, let's go!".
When Biden took office, people were still dying in droves and afraid to leave the house because of how Trump mismanaged the covid response. People have short memories. It must drive Joe nuts.
"Seriously: if the Chicago School were a branch of English literature and not economics, it would be a bunch of libertarians denouncing adverbs for ruining the purity of the prose..." lolol
Millions of people are unexcited about the economy even though it’s going well. Millions of people are unexcited about Biden even though he’s doing well. Same thing, right? Voting isn’t a rational process!
I think Joe knows what he's doing, and he doesn't want to peak too early. By next fall, all the ducks will be in nice rows, and the election won't be close.
Oh, man. You had to know I would weigh in here, given that I am a professional consulting astrologer and a former health economics and antitrust reporter. I get what you're trying to say about the perfidy of the dark wizardry that is economics -- we even talked about this on the last podcast of mine on which you guested: the Chicago School was a circle jerk, nothing more.
BUT! To say that economists are malevalent astrologers is painful for me to read, Friend. It debases what is a spiritual language. Economics is indeed as you describe it: data collection creatively interpreted.
Astrology doesn't need us. It is the language of the heavens, of the planets, of nature, and most important to note is that it exists whether or not we engage with it. It has its own laws and truths that we can never, ever change. Never.
Economics is always derived from the perimeters humans give it. Full stop.
As for your larger point about Biden, you and I overlap on this, but here's why I agree with your conclusion, even if I think your metaphor is deeply, deeply flawed: inflation is NOT REAL in that it is not organic. Supply and demand is also chicanery. There is nothing organic about it, either, because there is always someone behind the scenes tightening the grip on resources. Inflation is a way to control humans via labor, or shortages. It is a manipulation of our fears. And the supine media, as you brilliantly characterize them, is complicit in this lie.
And as an astrologer, I will tell you that as we have just passed the US Pluto return and will now be disoriented even more as Pluto soon enters Aquarius for the next two decades, to whom we give our authority to rule over our resources is about to get a real kick in the ass. Prediction: in 20 years, economics will be VERY different. It will measure wholly different outcomes, and we will see what utter bullshit we've been subjected to since Reaganomics.
Love ya, man.
xx
PS: Jupiter in the 4th house would, depending up on the conditions of Jupiter (retrograde, aspected by other planets, etc), and the sign placement, more likely indicate abundance for the country, and not labor conditions, an ironic note given your ultimate point about what Biden has done for the nation. x
NOT ALL ECONOMISTS!!!! There are plenty of excellent ones, alive and dead, who I have read and learned from and who know stuff.
Obviously, I'm using the comparison a bit tongue in cheek, but the quote is too awesome not to use. I enjoyed it because it assumes that astrology is either inherently good or at worst neutral, and thus the modifier is required.
Your point about economics being human and not stellar is dead-on. But both requite leaps of faith.
Jupiter is the Great Beatific, and the Fourth House controls the home. So: good things!
Pluto rules the underworld, which means Hades but also the criminal underworld, so I guess this makes sense...
Yeah, I can walk back the castigation of all economists. But the ones who suck are malevolent economists, not malevolent astrologers. Not having actually read the work of your source who coined the term, I will say my impression is that she has a low opinion of astrologers, which is why she used them to characterize shitty economists. Ergo, I would say she is wrong to begin with, because she is starting from a negative judgement of astrologers.
My bottom line here is that the subjects described by astrology are outside of human control. Economics is entirely within human control and so derive any power over our behavior based on how the data reflect the values of those in power, the ones who make the rules. Economics can manipulate us into behaviors that are not innately true to who we are. The celestial realm doesn't give a shit what we think of it and how we want to manipulate it. It won't agree to our whims.
As for either astrology or economics being a leap of faith...not really. The only accurate body of data in either field is that which is based on observational data, and that is the key. Data derived from controlled experiments or perimeters used to frame certain outcomes are all synthetic. Whereas, not one single human being can accurately say the sun rises in the west. Observations of the behavior of the sun confirm otherwise. That is why astrology, an entire field predicated solely on observational data is irrefutable, dependable, and belieavable. Economics is a perspective. Astrology is not.
The stars incline; they do not compel.
It's obviously not a perfect comparison; I'm curious what Elisabeth will have to say...
Lol! Seriously...EG...? Why haven't you spoken up?
x
Pluto also rules wealth, (the origin of the word plutocracy), and the underworld also refers to what is under the Earth, like natural resources such as oil, natural gas, and minerals.
Wow, I’m thinking a gummy or two might help me see the astrological picture more clearly Whitney!:)
You do you!
Don't forget to include in your analysis about negative reaction to the economy: student loan repayment, after a 3.5 year pause, has had a recent (October 2023) huge & dramatic impact on people's budgets & reminded all of the long term dread knowing repayment will take years!
The student loan debt forgiveness was a wonderful thing for many millions of people and, as you point out, for the economy. But it's nuanced, and therefore easy to weaponize by the GOP. "Why should people not have to pay back loans? YOU have to pay back YOUR loan!" etc. That's another thing GOP will hit him with in the debates (if there are debates).
Except when all the rich people looking at MTG and Gaetz got their PPP LOAN FORGIVEN! Forgiveness for me not for thee!
And let’s not forget the millions in federal tax refunds that FPOTUS got because of his business acumen in bankrupting casinos, sticking his investors with losses, and tinged with fraudulent valuations on properties for which Judge Engeron has already found him, the boys and the Trump Organization liable.
The sheer volume of corruption and general ickiness in his financial dealings makes my head spin. So gross. And such a waste of money.
Silly us, thinking he very rich would be treated the same as everyone else.
I will note that if everyone read the rules for those student loan repayments, that those persons had to have paid on the loan for 20-25 years already, with virtually no missed payments. There are other fairly stringent rules as well. It's not just a straight payoff. And they never mention the backside much...that when those persons spend that money it radiates out into the economy at a high rate (5X), so it is expansionary, and creates more tax dollars in the local and ultimately the national economy.
I remember thinking, at the time of the TARP in 08 when we bailed out the banks, what would happen if we instead used the money to pay off the credit card debt of every American. What will have more of a positive effect? I don't know the answer.
Those persons bailed out would have spent most of that money and the economy would have expanded, much of that money and those transactions going through the banks, so they would have had some benefit. However, that would have encouraged more of a credit economy - literally spending beyond you means - when, I think, raising wages could have the same effect...without the interest going to a middle man.
Credit for large scale purchases is one thing - and historically the role of credit for individuals as well as governments. Credit for household commodities - washing machines, say - and regular purchases is a rather modern invention. Or to put it another way, if there is a means to grab your money, someone here will have found it soon.
New York was pretty much the center of that idea and process, so it is really a key part of your culture in a quite visible historic way.
Student loan repayment should tap out at say, 10 years. How long is too long? $200k plus to our youth?! Paying it off the rest of their lives?! That's actually sickening.
To have an 18 year old child take on such an enormous debt for education is a disservice to the economy. Having an education is to the betterment of society. Not only that but some of the loan companies themselves are shady/crooked. I have stories.
I hold three degrees, from California institutions of higher learning, from which I graduated not owing a dime in student debt. That was when the state of California thought educating the population was a good investment in the future - before Republican governors Reagan and Deukmejian and Wilson came along to kill the goose that laid the golden eggs because We Have Ours And Fuck You! I like to think California got a pretty good return on their investment in me, and would do so again with Gen Z if they restored that policy, the original work of Pat Brown, father of Jerry the Pissant.
I think they made a wise & excellent investment in you.
How short-sighted our government has become.
Wonder which party that is...
Thank you.
Even in my day, which is the early 90s, the CA university system was the model for the country. I don't understand how very rich people want to ruin everything and think that makes life better.
It makes them feel more special, that they Have It and You Don't.
I used to be involved with the Planes of Fame Air Museum, the place that's responsible for the fact there are any flying World War II airplanes left. It used to be a community, and whether you were a pilot or a plane pusher or a wing polisher, or took tickets at the gate for the annual airshow, you were invited to the big party in the hangar after that airshow. Free. But then the Rich Kidz discovered they could buy Kool Airplanez, In 2017, after Ed Maloney the founder died, I decided to do a volunteer stint at that year's show in his memory (we were good friends for 40 years). When I went over to the hangar after the show, there was armed security at the door, telling me "This party is for the owners only." I left and never went back. (Too many Trumpers in Old Airplane World anyway)
My wife's late uncle managed some sort of WW2 airplane museum in Slippery Rock, Pa. Not sure how he felt about Trump, but he was a college professor, so I expect he felt like Trump was an asshole.
https://www.thompson-miller.com/obituaries/walter-powell-2019
From what I've seen, Gen Z has a different view of college than the last two generations. They seem to be savvier about it. Maybe the market turning against the colleges will prompt some change.
Yeah, something has to change bc the amount my spouse & I pay in loans each month is wrong. We've been out of school a long time, we've paid back what would be the principal of the loan and then some and then some. How are they going to charge that type of interest to the youth?
Everyone prior to my generation had college paid for/paid off and the college system was like," go ahead take out loans, you'll pay them back easily"...bc they had. It's just wrong.
Greg, you are amazing. I feel as though I have just passed a college class. And my personal opinions mirror yours about voting, but I do have a lot to say about food prices. I, too, am keeping a cat alive by catering to his ever-changing tastes and may need to hit my daughter up for cat support since it’s her cat technically. But that’s not my overall concern. I have been aghast for years about the incredibly complicated process of supermarket shopping. Way too many choices. Keeping your purchases to staples and avoiding crap helps both your pocketbook and your waistline. And walking to the store or at least from the far reaches of the parking lot helps too. Keeping the focus on myself and the present day. Thanks again for the free education.
Thanks, Katharine. The supermarket is like the streaming services, where you're going one place for one thing and another place for another. It's exhausting.
My Leo gives your cat his regards!
And Lucky Ting returns the greeting. He got that name when my daughter found him in the engine compartment of the car she had just driven to her local Chinese restaurant in Brooklyn. Ting was too wild for City living which is why I inherited him, and he has thrived all these years as an outdoor/indoor cat and has become a great lap sitter in his old age. Cat people for Biden!!
We're out there. The Fabulous Jamieson Avenue Felines campaign for him.
Lucky Ting is the greatest name! We give our cats people names, generally. Our middle one is named Mark, and he's very much a Mark.
I'm pretty sure I'm less qualified to read about astrology than you professed to be about writing about it but I know how to read corporate public profit statements and it reeks of corporate greed and profiteering. But Im like a Biden anti-MAGA and will vote for Uncle Joe as long as The Tangerine Turd draws breath, bigly. If the democrats find themselves having to legitimately defend Biden over Trump then we are fucked either way.
True, true. Rachel Slade -- my guest on this coming week's podcast -- and I talked about the corporate greed problem. Capitalism needs a tweak, or we're all literally doomed.
Yeah. Only the Big Dogs believe in a "Dog eat dog" society. Capitalism as Cannibalism.
Economics as zero sum game.
Corporate greed is the biggest threat to our economy period, the fucking opportunist!!
Although shouldering angst over keeping Trump holdovers like Powell and DeJoy appear idiotic!
Aside from that, coupled with full support of Israel, by reloading the arsenal of criminal inhumanity, I’m with old Joe!
Maddening how DeJoy has lasted, due to byzantine rules of the USPS. Powell has done his job, far as I can tell. The Fed is concerned with managing inflation, and he's done that as well as can be done.
Powell has wreaked havoc on the lower end of the middle class and destitute, while enriching the Uber-wealthy… several respected economists, even those here at Substack would concur! The money trust is ecstatic, which speaks volumes!
Dejoy was a pawn of a puppet master, his fuckery was deliberate for the upcoming election for the orange fuckface!!
👌🏼
I read an op-ed in the NYT this morning by Mara Gay. She went down to Georgia and spoke with voters who are mad about the economy. They’re mad at Biden because the stimulus checks they GOT FROM TRUMP stopped flowing (no mention of the one Joe sent their way). Their anger, however, seems to actually stem from the fact that they live in Georgia and their Republican government sucks and doesn’t do anything for them. I wish there were some way to impress upon people that the federal government gives money to the states and the state governments decide on which programs to bestow this money, not the president. If people are angry, perhaps they should look closer to home rather than focusing all of their ire at the very top.
The GOP politicians are masterful at claiming credit for what the Dems achieve, and blaming them for problems they themselves create. And too many voters don't understand this. It's very frustrating.
I was telling my roommate about the NYT op-ed this morning and he had a very interesting take (to me, at least). I’m a Yankee from Connecticut and while I’ve lived all over America, my sensibilities are very “liberal-progressive New Englander” and I view the world through this lens. My roomie, on the other hand, is from Speaker Johnson’s district in Louisiana. His entire family still lives there and until we moved to Connecticut in 2020, he’d never lived outside the south (his other residence was in Mobile, Alabama). So, anyway, his stance on all of the perception stuff is that state government control has always been Republican. They’ve ruled the south with an iron fist for decades and most people have never known anything different. When the only office that regularly changes hands in which you have some semblance of “direct control” is the presidency, it results in totally off the charts expectations for what a president can do for them.
(As an aside, 90% of the reason my roomie was eager to get out of the south was the regressive politics. It’s very hard to be a liberal Liberal in Shreveport.)
This is kind of a mind blow. I read it this morning and can't stop thinking about it. Thank you.
Georgia currently has a budget surplus in the billions. I've read that there's talk of Gov. Kemp floating some money off to various school systems to put towards " security" & the like. No gun bills passed here to stem the tide of certain types of guns used often in mass killings, in particular....schools; so now we'll use significant $$ towards shoring up security?? Why not free money towards bills that provide improving access to mental health treatment & feeding hungry kids, providing better educational outcomes for our children, which might eventually provide better job opportunities for young people. Not everyone is moving on towards higher education. More tech schools perhaps. We always will need tradesmen, electricians, plumbers & mechanics as well as accountants. It's good to have options in education.
I reside in Georgia, after leaving Florida 18 years ago & New England 38 years ago. Back then, education wise, culture wise, it almost felt like I'd moved to a foreign country. The warmer weather & at the time, more reasonable housing prices kept me here. But in many ways, I still feel at times that folks sensibilities & life concerns don't track with mine at all. Less a sense or concerns about social responsibility, in my opinion here, than I'd felt growing up in the North. Appears to be more of a willingness to follow conspiracy theories & fake stories . And I am not talking about poorly educated people necessarily. A bit concerning at times.
I remain surprised that Kemp, who seems so awful and corrupt, did not go in with Trump on the schemes. Never would have predicted that.
There is a huge mental health crisis in this country, because of the pandemic. It's going to cost us a lot of resources later on if we don't address it now.
Greg, You are dead on correct! People imo, operate on feelings more than facts. And yes, interest rates need to go down next year, so those holding off buying homes can feel good about a more affordable monthly house payment!!! Then perhaps they will feel better about a vote for President Biden as well in 2024. People respond to how something impacts their own lives specifically & not what the charts & the chart pointers say!
In the mid 90s, Clinton made student loan debt interest tax deductible -- the first instance I can recall of the federal government doing something that impacted me personally in a real way. People tend to remember this stuff. THat's why the GOP takes great pains to take credit from Democratic policies that are popular.
Why? BECAUSE THE FCKING MEDIA NEED A CLOSE RACE, and promoting the truth does not do that.
Nobody likes a blowout, but in this case, I'd love a good, Reagan-Mondale-style ass-kicking for Joe.
My one big worry is Joe's unabashed support of NetanyahuWankerTurd
It's the economy, stupid. NOT!!! Greg you said better than I can what I have been telling friends who ask the question why isn't Biden getting credit for a great economy. As you point out when the payments on ones variable rate mortgage rise, gas and groceries cost more, don't give me macroeconomic bullshit. Microeconomics, not a correct term but it will do matters, that is what we pay. Paychecks magically, almost unnoticed, therefore less relevant hit our bank account but each time we pull out the debit or credit card, very relevant outgoings matters.
This said 2024 is much less about the economy and much more about the immigration versus abortion. Listen to Lindsey Graham on Meet the Press. Should Republicans refocus on the Economy I believe they must feel they are losing on the immigration versus abortion issue, for me a good sign. Dems do need a better answer on this, spreadsheet talk is not the way to go. It could have been worse loses all the time. Perhaps focusing on 45's miserable economic performance, only the 1% benefited will work. Make people like auto workers know that under Biden real gains occurred. Joe didn't do it but he sure helped. Make people notice that the paycheck that arrives unnoticed is bigger than at any time under 45, as they say in song, accentuate the positive when needed.
One of the papers had a while thing about how the GOP was going to focus on immigration, as they always do. Will people still thrill to that overplayed single from years ago? I still think Dobbs effectively ended any chance of Trump winning. That has such a profound effect, a real effect, on so many families, and we're going to hear horror stories all the way through November of pregnant woman being abused by the states.
Great essay Greg! When I hear people bitching about the interest rate I tell them our first mortgage rate was around 12.5% ! I realize houses cost a lot more now but maybe it’s time to rethink what you really need. 3,000 sf home or will 2,000 sf suffice? Also part of the interest rate policy was dfg’s doing as he was putting pressure on Powell to go lower. Cheap money was helping trump’s bottom line and that was all that mattered to him!!
I just posted the same about our mortgage rate, Christine. We were thrilled when rates finally went down to 8% and we were able to refinance!
same for me. Though our mortgage was over 14%. Boy did 8% look good.
"Boy did 8% look good." It sure did, Susan!
It's all a matter of perspective.
I remember those times, even though I was a kid. There is a theory that it's better to buy a house when the interest rates are high,, because the sales price will be lower, and you can always refinance later. But overall, lower is better, at least for real estate.
A lot of houses are being scooped up by soulless corporations, which then charge insane rent. Feudalism 2.0. That's not great either.
About hookers and $100 dollar bills.
I almost threw up when I opened my Economics 101 book at the U of Miami in 1958. I naively thought that it would be an easy course. The chart on the inside cover was incomprehensible. I squeaked out a C grade.
I wrote this essay a few years ago. I confess - I’m not an economist.
HOOKERS, $100 BILLS, ECONOMICS, DERIVED DEPOSITS
By billserle16 February, 2014
I WANT TO TELL YOU ABOUT HOOKERS, $100 BILLS, ECONOMICS, DERIVED DEPOSITS AND OTHER GOOD AND INTERESTING THINGS.. HERE’S HOW THEY FIT TOGETHER.
I went to work in the installment loan department of the First National Bank of Miami in 1959. I stayed there for almost eight years working in a number of progressively more responsible jobs. This was the largest bank in the State of Florida with 1,000 employees under the same roof – it was before branch banking was permitted in the state.
They gave new employees classes on Wednesdays in the nice meeting room in the Personnel Department. (This is before we discovered Human Resources.)
One lesson was about Derived Deposits – Meaning that when we made a loan, the funds would wind up in a bank somewhere in town. If it was a cash loan the customer might cash the check and walk out but, before the day was done, it would be used to buy a washing machine, pay a doctor, buy a scooter or whatever comes to your mind. The money would mingle with other funds and go into someone’s bank account. Maybe even in our own bank. So we never minded when a customer took his loan proceeds as cash. We’d get it back eventually to loan again to another deserving customer.
By the way I met my wife Daisy over the phone while working at the bank. She and her first husband George Kruntz were expecting a baby at any moment when they applied by phone for a $300.00 loan to help with hospital expenses. They didn’t meet the bank’s stringent standards for an unsecured loan and I lucked out to be the one to call and turn them down.
She was really mad when I gave her the “no” news. She gave me a bawling out that I remember to this day. Sadly she and George had to go without the First National’s money. I recommended Beneficial Finance Company when she paused to think of some other names to call me.
We met in person in 1967 at work and married in 1974. It was probably 1999 or so when we remembered that conversation. She got mad again!
HERE’S THE STORY ABOUT THE $100.00 BILL ~
It’s a slow day in a little West Texas town.
The sun is beating down, and the streets are deserted.
Times are tough, everybody is in debt, and everybody lives on credit.
On this particular day a rich tourist from back east is driving through town. He stops at the motel and lays a $100 bill on the desk saying he wants to inspect the rooms upstairs in order to pick one to spend the night. As soon as the man walks upstairs, the owner grabs the bill and runs next door to pay his debt to the butcher.
The butcher takes the $100 and runs down the street to retire his debt to the pig farmer.
The pig farmer takes the $100 and heads off to pay his bill at the supplier of feed and fuel.
The guy at the Farmer’s Co-op takes the $100 and runs to pay his debt to the local prostitute, who has also been facing hard times and has had to offer her “services” on credit.
The hooker rushes to the hotel and pays off her room bill with the hotel owner.
The hotel proprietor then places the $100 back on the counter so the rich traveler will not suspect anything. At that moment the traveler comes down the stairs, picks up the $100 bill, states that the rooms are not satisfactory, pockets the money, and leaves town.
No one produced anything.
No one earned anything.
However, the whole town is now out of debt and looks to the future with optimism. That is how the world sometimes conducts business. THE HOOKERS DERIVED EARNINGS SAVED THE DAY!
Thanks for this, Bill. What a funny way to meet your wife! That's a great story.
And the cycle of that $100, yes, that's economics. Well said!
Well, Greg, like everything else, you will have a lot of negativity about this article, just as negativity weighs us down each day from journo's and MSM. Wet blankets smother out even the good warm feelings. Thanks. There is a dark side to Astrology. Check out the lunar nodes and the upcoming solstice.
Don't I know it! But I need to call it out now, so hopefully they can see what the issues are going to be. Sometimes the campaign has been slow to see where they will be taking heat from.
I never understood the lunar nodes...
This is top notch writing and perspective on a traditionally wonky topic. Your thinking and articulation have always been a welcome read, but this is your best yet.
Thanks so much, Paul.
The last few years have been rough, but it is definitely better now, and will be even better next year. What seems to be getting worse is the ignorant perception of what is actually happening under Biden's guidance.
Several years ago we had a House that was kicking ass because it was controlled by Democrats, and a Senate that was sometimes workable. Now we have Republican jackasses controlling the House and nothing at all is getting done. Clueless people want to pin that on Biden, and the media is like "ok, that will sell clicks and newspapers, let's go!".
When Biden took office, people were still dying in droves and afraid to leave the house because of how Trump mismanaged the covid response. People have short memories. It must drive Joe nuts.
"Seriously: if the Chicago School were a branch of English literature and not economics, it would be a bunch of libertarians denouncing adverbs for ruining the purity of the prose..." lolol
And, speaking of malevolence, let's not forget the lasting influence of the Chicago School: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago_Boys
LOL, thanks.
Not good. People shouldn't die horribly because of your garbage economics policies.
Millions of people are unexcited about the economy even though it’s going well. Millions of people are unexcited about Biden even though he’s doing well. Same thing, right? Voting isn’t a rational process!
I think Joe knows what he's doing, and he doesn't want to peak too early. By next fall, all the ducks will be in nice rows, and the election won't be close.