Purple Haze, Red Whine, Blue Moon, White House

In my analysis, the polls, the electoral math, the big picture, and recent election history all point to a victory for Kamala Harris

Oct 25, 2024

Welcome to Pennsylvania | I-79 north | Jimmy Emerson, DVM | Flickr

Valuing my sleep, and not much enjoying the sensation of panic-induced cortisol seeping like toxic sludge into my bloodstream, I make it a point to ignore any and all polls.

There is good reason for this. For one thing, polls are often wrong. I seem to recall John Zogby, the Nate Silver of his day, going on one of the late-night shows one election eve and confidently predicting a John Kerry victory. That was in 2004. And despite all the amazing technological innovations of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, polling doesn’t seem to have gotten any more reliable in the intervening 20 years—as anyone who watched the 2016 election results live on CNN well knows.

For another, polls are snapshots of a single moment in time, and nothing more. They are by nature transient. They are dependent on the framing of questions, the sample size, the model, the people being polled, and lots of other factors. They can’t and don’t incorporate everything. Like, do Trump’s poll numbers today reflect public knowledge of Jeffrey Goldberg’s damning Atlantic article, in which we learned that Donald Sr. kept complaining that he wanted “the kind of generals that Hitler had?” Is Putin bestie Elon Musk’s probably-illegal propaganda tour of Pennsylvania mucking up the polling data in the Keystone State? And: Who the fuck is still undecided?

However, there is no small amount of anxiety among those of us who would prefer not to install a serial sexual assailant, mob money launderer, Kremlin asset, and thief of top secret documents related to the country’s nuclear technology who has vowed to imprison his political enemies and deport 25 million U.S. residents, as dictator for life. And while I try not to generate false hope on these pages, I’m not going to ignore hopefulness, either. It’s called PREVAIL, after all, not I MEAN MAYBE IF WE GET LUCKY WE’LL EKE OUT A WIN.

In that spirit, I decided to do my own analysis of the electoral math. To be clear, I am not a pollster, a statistician, or a data scientist. On the contrary, I am a guy who screws up basic arithmetic in this column on the regular; in Sunday’s piece, to give the most recent example, I asserted that 1920 was “a century and a quarter ago.” You’ve been warned.

And with that caveat, let’s dive in:

Two hundred seventy is the magic number. That’s what you need to win the White House. This is according to the well-named website 270toWin.com—a fun and handy tool that I used in my research.

Despite her opponent’s delusional insistence that he will win his home state of New York, Kamala Harris begins with 191 sure-thing electoral votes: all of the West Coast, including Hawaii; all of the Northeast, excepting the one stray vote in Maine; plus Illinois, Colorado, and the stray vote in Nebraska. That’s what the cable news analysts call her “firewall.” Throw in Minnesota, where her running mate is the popular sitting governor, and she sits at 208. Her opponent, meanwhile, starts with 11 more votes—the Electoral College equivalent of driving off the ladies’ tee. The remaining 111 electoral votes are up for grabs. Right now, the map looks like this:

If I’m doing the math right—which, again, is not a given—that means that to win the White House and defeat Donald Sr., Harris needs 62 more electoral votes from some combination of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Virginia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Nevada, and New Mexico.

Rather than rely on the “gut” of popular prognosticators with ties to Peter Thiel and Paul Manafort, I decided to look at recent electoral history. Here’s how each of those states voted in the last six elections, where the number in the red boxes is the popular vote margin of victory for Donald Sr.:

The 2000 election, of course, was Bush vs. Gore, and was so close it had to be determined by Bush v. Gore; 2004 was the only time this century that the Republican candidate won the popular vote (see my note on the infernal Zogby, above); and 2008 was Obama’s commanding victory over the late John McCain.

Let’s take a look at each state, in order of likelihood to go blue:

Virginia

Virginia is for lovers, and also for Democrats. Sure, the state has a Republican governor, Glenn Younkin—a JD Vance type who made a gajillion dollars running the Carlyle Group, and one of very few Trump-endorsed candidates to win an election. But he’s anti-choice, Dobbs is on the ballot, Dems haven’t lost the state in 20 years, and Virginia’s considered “likely blue.” Give this one to Kamala.

208 + 13 = 221

New Mexico

A reliable Democratic stronghold, only once going red, way back in 2004, which I’m reliably informed was 20 years ago. Have you been to Santa Fe? Harris bags this one, too.

221 + 5 = 226

Michigan

The Wolverine State has voted blue every year except 2016, when the aforementioned Paul Manafort was sharing polling data with Russian intelligence officers who specialize in election fuckery—and even then, Trump barely squeaked by. We know Michigan is cool with women in positions of executive power; shout-out to Big Gretch. We know it’s a big union state; UAW president Shawn Fein is a fervent supporter of Kamala Harris and vociferous Trump hater. There are a lot of MAGA lawn signs in the U.P., sure, but Donald Sr. used Detroit as a punchline.

We really think Trump is winning here?

226 + 15 = 241

Wisconsin

Like its neighbor across Lake Michigan, the Badger State has gone blue in every election except 2016, and then just barely. Plus, Aaron Rodgers is no longer in Green Bay telling Packers fans to vote for his brain-worm buddy RFK Jr.

241 + 10 = 251

Nevada

Trump has never carried Nevada—not even in 2016. We think he’s going to start now? Why, because he bankrupted a few casinos? Because Miriam Adelson is bankrolling his campaign? I don’t care what Vegas says; I’m betting on Harris.

251 + 6 = 257

Pennsylvania

Donald Sr. has spent a lot of time in the Keystone State, because if he doesn’t win PA, he’s toast. Elon Musk has figured this out—probably his pal Putin got it through Elmo’s thick skull—and has been personally schlepping around the state as Trump’s unofficial campaign manager (which, all things considered, may help Harris more than Trump). The fascist South African was driving around throwing money at people to get them to vote for his guy—a strategy that worked like a charm in Gotham City:

But, as with Michigan and Wisconsin, Pennsylvania has only gone red once this century, in 2016, and then by a narrow margin. The governor, Josh Shapiro, is a popular rising-star Democrat who has been campaigning hard for Harris. And, I mean, this is the state where Trump got shot at by one of his own supporters.

257 + 19 = 276

Well would ya look at that! Winning just those six additional states would give Harris the White House. Knock me over with a feather! Then stick it in my cap and call it macaroni!

But other states are in play, too.

To help with my analysis here, I called on my friend Joanie Vee, a charter KHive member and a Harris volunteer who set up a Kamala fundraising operation in Washington State. She knows a lot more about this stuff than I do. And if you’re wondering about her confidence level, she’s already organized a Harris/Walz victory party for election night.

Moving along. . .

Georgia

Biden won this state in 2020, pushing back on years of GOP dominance. Over the past four years, Georgia has had an outsized role in national politics. This is where Donald pressured the state secretary of state to “find” more votes. And this is one of the states where he was indicted; his infamous mugshot is from the Fulton County Sheriff’s office.

Harris has generated a lot of enthusiasm at her appearances here; last night’s event outside Atlanta drew the largest crowd at any political rally this year. “Georgia can motivate,” Joanie Vee says. “That we elected the two Senators, Ossoff and Warnock, in the most perilous of times shows Georgia’s GOTV power…There is massive investment in the ground game there.”

Too, they’ve lost significant voter repression cases recently, thanks to the indefatigable Marc Elias. I’m not sure the MAGA fuckery will work the way Donald Sr. and his cronies hopes. Bottom line: Harris doesn’t need Georgia, but a victory here would be, ahem, peaches and cream.

276 + 16 = 292

North Carolina

Obama won the Tar Heel State in 2008. It’s been red ever since, but Donald Sr.’s margin of victory has decreased in each election. Are the residents of the hurricane-ravaged western part of the state more or less likely to vote for Trump now—after his recent visit to pick up a French fry pin shut down the one operational road for hours?

Here’s something I just learned: Anderson Clayton is not a white-shoe Charlotte law firm or a white-haired cable news anchor—she’s North Carolina’s Democratic Party Chair, she’s half my age, and she is really really good at her job. MSNBC watchers will recognize her from The Last Word With Lawrence O’Donnell. “Massive ground game operation there,” Vee tells me. “Major repeat appearances by both candidates and surrogates [on cable news shows] are a big tell and plus.”

And I haven’t even mentioned Mark Robinson, the gross GOP gubernatorial candidate and alleged porn addict and slavery enthusiast endorsed by Trump.

292 + 16 = 308

Arizona

Trump squeaked by in 2016 and lost in 2020. My guess is, the Atlantic article that shows Baby Bone Spurs’ deep-seated contempt for the military, as well as General Kelly going on the record, will move the needle here. This is John McCain’s state, after all—a great American whose Hanoi Hilton heroism Donald Sr. mocked.

308 + 11 = 319

Florida

I’m old enough to remember when Florida was a swing state. Did the fascistic Ron DeSantis and his idiot Ministry of Education overlord Chris Rufo really chase away all the Democrats? How has the aftermath of the pandemic affected voter demographics? Is the pro-Harris energy in The Villages an outlier, or an indicator of an upset? Will the Biden Administration’s expert handling of the Helene and Milton disasters, combined with DeSantis presiding over the crisis of soaring homeowners insurance premiums, convince Floridians to go blue?

The state is trending in the wrong direction, it seems. On the other hand, Democrats overcame a 211k deficit in Georgia—a smaller state. It’s not inconceivable to flip the 371k in Florida.

319 + 30 = 349

That leaves us with this:

Sure, it’s unlikely Harris will rack up 349 electoral votes. On the other hand, in this election, against this opponent, anything is possible. In 2020, we weren’t voting for Biden as much as against Trump. This time round, we are voting for Harris and against Trump—a double whammy.

We are also voting against Dobbs, something that TV pundits and legacy media op-ed writers got bored off a long time ago but that is still important to actual voters. “Don’t forget the blowout abortion referendums in Kansas—and that they have a Democratic Governor,” Vee reminds me. “A veteran GOP ex-Senator (Kassebaum) just endorsed Kamala there!”

So yeah, Kamala could win Kansas. She could win Iowa. She could win Ohio, where Haitian immigrants are not eating the pets. She could win Alaska. Heck, she could even win Texas—and probably would, if Greg Abbott & Co. knocked off the voter suppression dirty tricks.

Look, I get it. We all have PTSD from 2016. And since Bill Clinton’s win in 1996, we have seen a lot of elections that have been close and/or weird. I’m not one of the Nates, thank God, but I know all about the Law of Averages, and the Law of Averages says we’re due for another 2008—a good, old-fashioned blowout. If things break as they should, this one should be over by 9:02 on the East Coast, when they call California, Oregon, and Washington. I’ll have my victory cigar at the ready.

“Stop, Greg!” you shout at your iPad. “Don’t say that! You’ll jinx it!” To which I reply that, alas, my psychic powers are not quite powerful enough to influence presidential elections; mayoral elections, perhaps, but not presidential elections.

But if you still insist on getting woo-woo, fine. I’m not jinxing anything. I’m speaking the desired outcome into existence. And it’s like this: Donald Trump Sr. should hold his election night party at Ivana’s golf course gravesite, because he’s going to get buried.

More thoughts on the election from last week’s Five 8: