Thank you for investing so much time and effort and for stretching your math abilities on this piece. You actually made me feel more optimistic, which is a Herculean task because the PTSD is strong in me. My biggest fear is that they will just steal the election outright.
Thanks, Tracy. After I wrote this. Harris drew 30+ to her rally in Houston -- which, again, why is she in Texas if there's no chance she can win there? -- while Trump was 3 hours late to his event in Traverse City MI and half the crowd left before he showed up. Then he got there and swayed to weird music for half an hour. Very presidential.
This past Wednesday I voted 🌊🌊🌊 early here in the Sunshine State. I’m so old that I can remember when Florida was reliably Democratic! Would love to see it give a big surprise this year to the Orange Yam, & am hoping to see Red Tide Rick retired from the Senate. For anyone who relies on polls, remember back in 2016 when HRC was going to be our first female President?
Excellent due diligence so all I can add is that unnumbered things about which we're unaware are going on all the time, that many things can happen in an instant (let alone in 11 days) & so the world can turn upside down at any time. My X profile @richismo77 shows my murdered aunt Sarah on vacation outside Warsaw, Poland, August, 1939.
Thanks, Richard. Thank you for sharing that and keeping her memory alive. Part of the revulsion and bewilderment we all feel is at how so many people either are ignorant of or seem to support Nazis.
When I look at the history of polls they are no better than Chicago weathermen . The reason it is close is the media and people who believe polls for money make it seem close for aforementioned money. I'm just going to vote and see what happens
"Kamala has raised twice as much funding as Trump in the last 4 months" but that is LEGAL, REPORTED money. But on the other hand, if you donate, you vote. And Kamala ground game is 5x the Trump fiasco. Thank you Greg, as always. Good luck to us! ❤️
Hahaahaaaaa yes. Typical arrogant Musk MAGA stupidity. Because Trump spent all the donations on legal fees, he had nothing at all until Musk saw his future burning and crashing without Fascism
Thanks for yet another brilliant post. First, I found this poll encouraging. Call it the "put your money where your mouth is" poll. https://wapo.st/48jVsfC
Second, there is something to be said for speaking about the future as if it has already happened, as in, "Isn't it fabulous how Kamala Harris buried Trump in the November election? And the size of the crowd on the National Mall cheering for her success on Inauguration Day 2025 was the biggest yet!" This is intentional magic -- and it works. Third, I will be serving as a poll worker on November 5th. Polls close in NY at 9 PM ET, and it takes an hour to run our tapes and tabulations. So...may take a bit longer than 9:02 PM ET to call the big blue wave, but hey -- let's put it out there anyway. "Isn't it amazing how they accurately called the election for Harris before 9 PM ET on November 5th? What a blowout!"
Thank you for being a poll worker. I very much appreciate the sentiment of joy in future events, me I am locked in the "don't jinx" the possibilities mindset. It's like saying Beetlejuice out loud. You and Greg may just allow me to enjoy a glass half full perspective.
I am pragmatic about it. When she wins, there's no reason to get upset or anxious now, because it won't affect the outcome. And if she loses, there's plenty of time to be upset. I don't think anyone is going into it thinking it's over, like in 2016. That will make the relief and the joy that much sweeter!
Thanks, Elisabeth. I'm glad you're going to be a poll worker. Good! It will be fascinating for you to observe. And yes: speak it into existence, like it's already happened.
I've been to an inauguration. The KH one is going to be the biggest and best one EVER, and that includes Obama's. Words fail to describe how lit it will be.
i’ve served as a Poll worker since 2016 when a friend of mine who lives in my district was denied a ballot because the poll worker couldn’t alphabetize and thus could not find his name on the roster. After my first shift, I sent an email to the board of elections with a list of 17 things. I wanted them to change, and then I demanded an in person meeting to discuss it. And I got it!
Absolutely what I needed, thanks. Perhaps I can begin letting my finger nails grow back.
Being an Old Man what I read yesterday is today's distant memory. I do however recall a well regarded GOP pollster yesterday saying he believed we shall have a blowout electoral college victory. Sadly the wimp would not say who would win. He stated that he felt there is enough evidence to support one candidate winning in excess of the winner tally of 306 from the last two elections. Perhaps you have provided that evidence.
After my stroke I gave up alcohol, too unsteady when walking to allow spirits to exacerbate the problem. FYI, Blue Moon non alcoholic beer does however fill the celebration gap quite nicely.
Off topic, I had drafted a response to dipshit 45 voters on why they shouldn't vote for him, it was meant to be a calm and reasoned rebuttal. Probably too long but there are two points that always seem to gain attention. FYI they are:
He poked fun at a disabled journalist, everyone has seen the video. Maybe funny to some but as one who suffered an stroke I walk with a limp, cannot pick up or hold, say a spoon in my right hand. Some may find my condition humorous, I don’t. Why vote for someone who has no compassion whatsoever for those less fortunate than him, moreover finds joy in degrading them?
I was with the 522nd MASH unit. My MOS was the Radar O’Reilly of my unit. Part of my training occurred at Brooke Army Medical Center, San Antonio TX. It involved doing rounds with doctors to facilitate my medical records training. BAMC specializes in burn victims. One day we visited a young soldier who was exposed in Vietnam to a phosphorus grenade. It was as though his face melted. Lips sealed, one eye drooped below what was left of his nose, a horrific image that, some 50 years later haunts me. For Donald Trump this soldier is a LOSER! Yet he wants my vote.
Yes, one must never forget in Dark Times to remember that their is light at the end of a tunnel. We just need to keep moving towards it. VOTE is moving towards the light. The support H-W are getting from so many disparate groups, rock stars, actors from Presidents, disaffected Republicans including many close to 45, military big wigs has got to mean something to enough voter to push K-W above the 306 of 2016 and 2020.
I don’t trust polls either. I never respond when asked. So my intention to vote blue is not included in the polls.
I sure do love your work, Greg. Keep on keeping on…!billserle.com.
Thanks so much, Bill!
I’ve got a celebratory bottle of Veuve on ice. And a backup bottle of Makers on hand just in case things go haywire.
One of my favorite Dawes songs hits it for me: "When the tequila runs out, we'll be drinking Champagne."
Thank you for investing so much time and effort and for stretching your math abilities on this piece. You actually made me feel more optimistic, which is a Herculean task because the PTSD is strong in me. My biggest fear is that they will just steal the election outright.
Thanks, Tracy. After I wrote this. Harris drew 30+ to her rally in Houston -- which, again, why is she in Texas if there's no chance she can win there? -- while Trump was 3 hours late to his event in Traverse City MI and half the crowd left before he showed up. Then he got there and swayed to weird music for half an hour. Very presidential.
Greg, thank you for this piece. I don’t trust the polls either. You have made me smile once again.
Thanks, Helen!
TGIF🎉🎉🎉We are NOT going back👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻
we are NOT.
I've been looking at the early/mail-in vote at https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote when I need to self-soothe. My sister on Long Island says Kamala will win by "75%" so there's that.
Great resource, thanks for sharing! Are people in MA early voting for RFK? WTF is going on there? Very strange.
Not gonna lose sleep over the only state McGovern carried, man! ;)
Please please please let this be the case! 🙏🙏🙏 see ya tonight!
We speak it into existence.
From your lips to God’s ear!
This past Wednesday I voted 🌊🌊🌊 early here in the Sunshine State. I’m so old that I can remember when Florida was reliably Democratic! Would love to see it give a big surprise this year to the Orange Yam, & am hoping to see Red Tide Rick retired from the Senate. For anyone who relies on polls, remember back in 2016 when HRC was going to be our first female President?
Amen.
Rick Scott is so obviously, blatantly awful, I don't know how he even hides it. Even Ted Cruz doesn't LOOK evil.
Excellent due diligence so all I can add is that unnumbered things about which we're unaware are going on all the time, that many things can happen in an instant (let alone in 11 days) & so the world can turn upside down at any time. My X profile @richismo77 shows my murdered aunt Sarah on vacation outside Warsaw, Poland, August, 1939.
Thanks, Richard. Thank you for sharing that and keeping her memory alive. Part of the revulsion and bewilderment we all feel is at how so many people either are ignorant of or seem to support Nazis.
When I look at the history of polls they are no better than Chicago weathermen . The reason it is close is the media and people who believe polls for money make it seem close for aforementioned money. I'm just going to vote and see what happens
Excellent point, Christopher. Only one poll that matters: the vote count.
Thanks for this excellent essay Greg, and also for putting this in the proper perspective.
Thanks so much, John!
I'm going to read this every night before bed. Thanks, Greg.
Thanks, Wayne. Ask: why is KH in Texas? 30k people at the Beyonce event in Houston. This might be a blowout, it really might.
"Kamala has raised twice as much funding as Trump in the last 4 months" but that is LEGAL, REPORTED money. But on the other hand, if you donate, you vote. And Kamala ground game is 5x the Trump fiasco. Thank you Greg, as always. Good luck to us! ❤️
Are you saying that outsourcing the ground game to Elon Musk, who outsourced it to some dude name Weakley, is a bad plan?
Hahaahaaaaa yes. Typical arrogant Musk MAGA stupidity. Because Trump spent all the donations on legal fees, he had nothing at all until Musk saw his future burning and crashing without Fascism
Thanks for yet another brilliant post. First, I found this poll encouraging. Call it the "put your money where your mouth is" poll. https://wapo.st/48jVsfC
Second, there is something to be said for speaking about the future as if it has already happened, as in, "Isn't it fabulous how Kamala Harris buried Trump in the November election? And the size of the crowd on the National Mall cheering for her success on Inauguration Day 2025 was the biggest yet!" This is intentional magic -- and it works. Third, I will be serving as a poll worker on November 5th. Polls close in NY at 9 PM ET, and it takes an hour to run our tapes and tabulations. So...may take a bit longer than 9:02 PM ET to call the big blue wave, but hey -- let's put it out there anyway. "Isn't it amazing how they accurately called the election for Harris before 9 PM ET on November 5th? What a blowout!"
Thank you for being a poll worker. I very much appreciate the sentiment of joy in future events, me I am locked in the "don't jinx" the possibilities mindset. It's like saying Beetlejuice out loud. You and Greg may just allow me to enjoy a glass half full perspective.
I am pragmatic about it. When she wins, there's no reason to get upset or anxious now, because it won't affect the outcome. And if she loses, there's plenty of time to be upset. I don't think anyone is going into it thinking it's over, like in 2016. That will make the relief and the joy that much sweeter!
Thanks, Elisabeth. I'm glad you're going to be a poll worker. Good! It will be fascinating for you to observe. And yes: speak it into existence, like it's already happened.
I've been to an inauguration. The KH one is going to be the biggest and best one EVER, and that includes Obama's. Words fail to describe how lit it will be.
i’ve served as a Poll worker since 2016 when a friend of mine who lives in my district was denied a ballot because the poll worker couldn’t alphabetize and thus could not find his name on the roster. After my first shift, I sent an email to the board of elections with a list of 17 things. I wanted them to change, and then I demanded an in person meeting to discuss it. And I got it!
Greg
Absolutely what I needed, thanks. Perhaps I can begin letting my finger nails grow back.
Being an Old Man what I read yesterday is today's distant memory. I do however recall a well regarded GOP pollster yesterday saying he believed we shall have a blowout electoral college victory. Sadly the wimp would not say who would win. He stated that he felt there is enough evidence to support one candidate winning in excess of the winner tally of 306 from the last two elections. Perhaps you have provided that evidence.
After my stroke I gave up alcohol, too unsteady when walking to allow spirits to exacerbate the problem. FYI, Blue Moon non alcoholic beer does however fill the celebration gap quite nicely.
Off topic, I had drafted a response to dipshit 45 voters on why they shouldn't vote for him, it was meant to be a calm and reasoned rebuttal. Probably too long but there are two points that always seem to gain attention. FYI they are:
He poked fun at a disabled journalist, everyone has seen the video. Maybe funny to some but as one who suffered an stroke I walk with a limp, cannot pick up or hold, say a spoon in my right hand. Some may find my condition humorous, I don’t. Why vote for someone who has no compassion whatsoever for those less fortunate than him, moreover finds joy in degrading them?
I was with the 522nd MASH unit. My MOS was the Radar O’Reilly of my unit. Part of my training occurred at Brooke Army Medical Center, San Antonio TX. It involved doing rounds with doctors to facilitate my medical records training. BAMC specializes in burn victims. One day we visited a young soldier who was exposed in Vietnam to a phosphorus grenade. It was as though his face melted. Lips sealed, one eye drooped below what was left of his nose, a horrific image that, some 50 years later haunts me. For Donald Trump this soldier is a LOSER! Yet he wants my vote.
Yes, one must never forget in Dark Times to remember that their is light at the end of a tunnel. We just need to keep moving towards it. VOTE is moving towards the light. The support H-W are getting from so many disparate groups, rock stars, actors from Presidents, disaffected Republicans including many close to 45, military big wigs has got to mean something to enough voter to push K-W above the 306 of 2016 and 2020.
Amem!
Thanks for this, Old Man. My god, that image, and that poor poor soldier. Good God. But Trump had bone spurs, and Studio 54 was his Vietnam. Ugh.
She will be over 300...and you'll be enjoying your non-alcoholic Blue Moon. Not RED Moon, lol.
I’m with you!
Yes!