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John DesMarteau's avatar

I fully agree with you that the Russian generals would not follow Putin's order to use nuclear weapons for a number of reasons: 1) Biden and Jens Stoltenberg, NATO's Secretary General, have made it clear the Russian use of WMDs, which include nukes, would change their calculus significantly. It's very clear to me what that means, and 2) even if the Russian generals don't care about their kids and grandkids, they almost certainly care about their lavish lifestyles, which remain far above the average Russian even in the face of sanctions. It's very unlikely they would want to see their dachas be vaporized in a radioactive conflagration.

I also agree with you that worrying about nuclear annihilation is pointless. As I have been living under that threat since 1949, and am not a highly-placed politician, long ago I realized there's little I could do to stop their use.

There is a consequence of Putin's invasion of Ukraine that hasn't been discussed very much, namely nuclear proliferation. Ukrainian politicians who are old enough to have been in power when the Budapest Memorandum was signed in 1994, and are still alive today, probably regret giving up their nukes for what has turned to be a meaningless territorial integrity pledge signed by the US, the UK and the Russian Federation. It's doubtful Putin would have invaded had Ukraine still had the 3rd largest nuclear arsenal in the world. The mainstream media have hardly discussed the betrayal of the memorandum's content. Even President Zelenzkyy hasn't made it a major pressure point when begging the US for a no-fly zone and/or better help repelling Russian aerial bombardment. What's clear to me is that the message won't be lost on North Korea and Iran. I'd love to be the proverbial fly on the wall during the current Iran nuclear deal negotiations. It wouldn't surprise me to learn, given America's right-ward turn, that Canada, with deep nuclear scientific knowledge, hasn't at least discussed the possibility of building nukes. To paraphrase Margo Channing (Betty Davis) in "All About Eve,": Fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be a bumpy rest of 2022.

Ellen's avatar

Last week a series of tornados ripped through my state. When the sirens rang out repeatedly in the middle of the night, I managed to coerce my two cats into our "safe space" - a closet off a bathroom and under the stairs. We huddled there for what seemed an eternity. The next day, I began gathering "supplies" for that space, since it appears we will no doubt go through this event many times in the weeks and months ahead. Then I had one of those epiphanies; one that occurs when you read a poem called "Earth." My house, a 116-year-old pier and beam would simply be tossed around like the box it is, assuming that the ancient pecan trees hovering over it didn't smash it in. All those supplies and all that time huddling would be for naught. Likewise, if nuclear war commences, there is NO "safe space" anywhere for any of us. So, we must go on living our lives and hope that those who make decisions on our behalf will make wise ones. That's the limit of my ability to control my fate, such as it is. I can't control the weather and Putin is certainly WAY beyond my limits. "Face the sun but turn your back to the storm." (Irish proverb)

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