I fully agree with you that the Russian generals would not follow Putin's order to use nuclear weapons for a number of reasons: 1) Biden and Jens Stoltenberg, NATO's Secretary General, have made it clear the Russian use of WMDs, which include nukes, would change their calculus significantly. It's very clear to me what that means, and 2) even if the Russian generals don't care about their kids and grandkids, they almost certainly care about their lavish lifestyles, which remain far above the average Russian even in the face of sanctions. It's very unlikely they would want to see their dachas be vaporized in a radioactive conflagration.
I also agree with you that worrying about nuclear annihilation is pointless. As I have been living under that threat since 1949, and am not a highly-placed politician, long ago I realized there's little I could do to stop their use.
There is a consequence of Putin's invasion of Ukraine that hasn't been discussed very much, namely nuclear proliferation. Ukrainian politicians who are old enough to have been in power when the Budapest Memorandum was signed in 1994, and are still alive today, probably regret giving up their nukes for what has turned to be a meaningless territorial integrity pledge signed by the US, the UK and the Russian Federation. It's doubtful Putin would have invaded had Ukraine still had the 3rd largest nuclear arsenal in the world. The mainstream media have hardly discussed the betrayal of the memorandum's content. Even President Zelenzkyy hasn't made it a major pressure point when begging the US for a no-fly zone and/or better help repelling Russian aerial bombardment. What's clear to me is that the message won't be lost on North Korea and Iran. I'd love to be the proverbial fly on the wall during the current Iran nuclear deal negotiations. It wouldn't surprise me to learn, given America's right-ward turn, that Canada, with deep nuclear scientific knowledge, hasn't at least discussed the possibility of building nukes. To paraphrase Margo Channing (Betty Davis) in "All About Eve,": Fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be a bumpy rest of 2022.
Thanks for this, John. You're right about 1994. I mean, we said we'd help, and then we didn't. If we can't honor an agreement from my last year in college, are we really going to defend Taiwan because of something signed in the 40s? And I only know about this from Victor Rud, who was on my podcast. I've been screaming about it ever since, but I don't know that I've seen it written anywhere.
Another wonderful post. Casablanca is the best movie ever made. Ended up in You Tube rabbit hole because I watched the clip, teared up, read comments, and decided to watch the documentary Cinema's Exiles which was recommended in a comment.
I vividly remember the Cuban Missile Crisis. I was in the 8th grade and living in St. Paul, Minnesota. My mother fixed stew for dinner in her electric skillet. It had been a crisp, sunny, cold and picture perfect midwestern Fall day. We ate dinner on TV trays in front of our TV so we could watch JFK's address to the nation. I don't think I'd ever seen my mother more frightened. I was also scared but I trusted JFK. We had just seen JFK a couple of weeks earlier when he spoke at the annual DFL Bean Feed, the biggest fundraiser for the Democratic party in the Twin Cities.
To quote Sly and The Family Stone, "Thank you for lettin' me be myself again" as I stroll down Memory Lane. For some reason I've not feared nuclear war since that time.
The Cuban Missile Crisis must have been terrifying, because (as Sting sang) there was no historical precedent. Thank goodness we have Biden now and not...well, fill in the blank.
Last week a series of tornados ripped through my state. When the sirens rang out repeatedly in the middle of the night, I managed to coerce my two cats into our "safe space" - a closet off a bathroom and under the stairs. We huddled there for what seemed an eternity. The next day, I began gathering "supplies" for that space, since it appears we will no doubt go through this event many times in the weeks and months ahead. Then I had one of those epiphanies; one that occurs when you read a poem called "Earth." My house, a 116-year-old pier and beam would simply be tossed around like the box it is, assuming that the ancient pecan trees hovering over it didn't smash it in. All those supplies and all that time huddling would be for naught. Likewise, if nuclear war commences, there is NO "safe space" anywhere for any of us. So, we must go on living our lives and hope that those who make decisions on our behalf will make wise ones. That's the limit of my ability to control my fate, such as it is. I can't control the weather and Putin is certainly WAY beyond my limits. "Face the sun but turn your back to the storm." (Irish proverb)
Profound and living in reality. What can we do? IF nuclear war happened, I'd most wish to be somewhere very near a ground zero where I would just be a burned-in shadow on concrete. Who wants to live after nuclear war? Not me. What a literal hell on earth that would be! Other than that, I suppose I am optimistic about the future!
Always a little different take on things, I need that. Ukraine was becoming too successful, didn’t need Russia or NATO. They kicked out Putin’s chosen crook and elected an independent president for an independent country. They elected Putin for not a damned thing.
Your closing "intelligent beings must have lived there" reminds me of the "L" factor in the Drake Equation (an estimate of how many intelligent civilsations are among the stars). "L" is the average "lifetime" of an advanced civilisation, which scientists guess to be around 100-200 years. Only. Before destroying themselves.
I suspect that the climate catastrophe will cause a breakdown in supply chains within 30 years, and an end to our current civilisation. Since greed is a mental illness, and far too many of our leaders and super-rich have this disease, I don't see how we avoid this end, so terribly soon.
The potassium iodide pills I bought off Amazon 5weeks ago for my daughter living in Chicago were mysteriously pilfered in the USPS system so beware of online scams etc. Instead of obsessively prepping we should all live life to the fullest, take a vacation, enjoy good music & better company & plant a war garden this Spring. I too, recently viewed Casa Blanca, but before the Dragon escaped his liar in Moscow, and marvelled at it’s romance & eternal relevance again.
I fully agree with you that the Russian generals would not follow Putin's order to use nuclear weapons for a number of reasons: 1) Biden and Jens Stoltenberg, NATO's Secretary General, have made it clear the Russian use of WMDs, which include nukes, would change their calculus significantly. It's very clear to me what that means, and 2) even if the Russian generals don't care about their kids and grandkids, they almost certainly care about their lavish lifestyles, which remain far above the average Russian even in the face of sanctions. It's very unlikely they would want to see their dachas be vaporized in a radioactive conflagration.
I also agree with you that worrying about nuclear annihilation is pointless. As I have been living under that threat since 1949, and am not a highly-placed politician, long ago I realized there's little I could do to stop their use.
There is a consequence of Putin's invasion of Ukraine that hasn't been discussed very much, namely nuclear proliferation. Ukrainian politicians who are old enough to have been in power when the Budapest Memorandum was signed in 1994, and are still alive today, probably regret giving up their nukes for what has turned to be a meaningless territorial integrity pledge signed by the US, the UK and the Russian Federation. It's doubtful Putin would have invaded had Ukraine still had the 3rd largest nuclear arsenal in the world. The mainstream media have hardly discussed the betrayal of the memorandum's content. Even President Zelenzkyy hasn't made it a major pressure point when begging the US for a no-fly zone and/or better help repelling Russian aerial bombardment. What's clear to me is that the message won't be lost on North Korea and Iran. I'd love to be the proverbial fly on the wall during the current Iran nuclear deal negotiations. It wouldn't surprise me to learn, given America's right-ward turn, that Canada, with deep nuclear scientific knowledge, hasn't at least discussed the possibility of building nukes. To paraphrase Margo Channing (Betty Davis) in "All About Eve,": Fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be a bumpy rest of 2022.
Thanks for this, John. You're right about 1994. I mean, we said we'd help, and then we didn't. If we can't honor an agreement from my last year in college, are we really going to defend Taiwan because of something signed in the 40s? And I only know about this from Victor Rud, who was on my podcast. I've been screaming about it ever since, but I don't know that I've seen it written anywhere.
Thanks Greg! I feel better after reading your Sunday post.💙
Thank you for the music and poetry, in war.
Why art is essential. A film, a song, a poem. The Sting song has been in my head all week.
Another wonderful post. Casablanca is the best movie ever made. Ended up in You Tube rabbit hole because I watched the clip, teared up, read comments, and decided to watch the documentary Cinema's Exiles which was recommended in a comment.
I vividly remember the Cuban Missile Crisis. I was in the 8th grade and living in St. Paul, Minnesota. My mother fixed stew for dinner in her electric skillet. It had been a crisp, sunny, cold and picture perfect midwestern Fall day. We ate dinner on TV trays in front of our TV so we could watch JFK's address to the nation. I don't think I'd ever seen my mother more frightened. I was also scared but I trusted JFK. We had just seen JFK a couple of weeks earlier when he spoke at the annual DFL Bean Feed, the biggest fundraiser for the Democratic party in the Twin Cities.
To quote Sly and The Family Stone, "Thank you for lettin' me be myself again" as I stroll down Memory Lane. For some reason I've not feared nuclear war since that time.
The Cuban Missile Crisis must have been terrifying, because (as Sting sang) there was no historical precedent. Thank goodness we have Biden now and not...well, fill in the blank.
Amen to that.
I lived through it, and it was terrifying.
The planet will not explode
It will become a dead star
Humans will wink out
Many moons before
The planet goes dark.
That right there is a poem, Cal!
Thanks, Greg.
Last week a series of tornados ripped through my state. When the sirens rang out repeatedly in the middle of the night, I managed to coerce my two cats into our "safe space" - a closet off a bathroom and under the stairs. We huddled there for what seemed an eternity. The next day, I began gathering "supplies" for that space, since it appears we will no doubt go through this event many times in the weeks and months ahead. Then I had one of those epiphanies; one that occurs when you read a poem called "Earth." My house, a 116-year-old pier and beam would simply be tossed around like the box it is, assuming that the ancient pecan trees hovering over it didn't smash it in. All those supplies and all that time huddling would be for naught. Likewise, if nuclear war commences, there is NO "safe space" anywhere for any of us. So, we must go on living our lives and hope that those who make decisions on our behalf will make wise ones. That's the limit of my ability to control my fate, such as it is. I can't control the weather and Putin is certainly WAY beyond my limits. "Face the sun but turn your back to the storm." (Irish proverb)
Profound and living in reality. What can we do? IF nuclear war happened, I'd most wish to be somewhere very near a ground zero where I would just be a burned-in shadow on concrete. Who wants to live after nuclear war? Not me. What a literal hell on earth that would be! Other than that, I suppose I am optimistic about the future!
Yeah, I have zero interest in life in a post-apocalyptic hellscape. Once the WiFi goes, I'm done.
Thanks for that, Ellen. My god, its so scary, all of it. But what can we do? We go on, because that's all we can do. The Irish proverb is a wise one!
The Frost poem was pretty sobering...
Right? I can't print the whole thing, because it's too recent, but it's sobering indeed.
Always a little different take on things, I need that. Ukraine was becoming too successful, didn’t need Russia or NATO. They kicked out Putin’s chosen crook and elected an independent president for an independent country. They elected Putin for not a damned thing.
Thank you, Greg.
Your closing "intelligent beings must have lived there" reminds me of the "L" factor in the Drake Equation (an estimate of how many intelligent civilsations are among the stars). "L" is the average "lifetime" of an advanced civilisation, which scientists guess to be around 100-200 years. Only. Before destroying themselves.
I suspect that the climate catastrophe will cause a breakdown in supply chains within 30 years, and an end to our current civilisation. Since greed is a mental illness, and far too many of our leaders and super-rich have this disease, I don't see how we avoid this end, so terribly soon.
https://www.space.com/25219-drake-equation.html
Touching
The potassium iodide pills I bought off Amazon 5weeks ago for my daughter living in Chicago were mysteriously pilfered in the USPS system so beware of online scams etc. Instead of obsessively prepping we should all live life to the fullest, take a vacation, enjoy good music & better company & plant a war garden this Spring. I too, recently viewed Casa Blanca, but before the Dragon escaped his liar in Moscow, and marvelled at it’s romance & eternal relevance again.