Handicapping the GOP White House Hopefuls

An early look at the 2024 Republican Presidential nominee betting odds.

May 16, 2023

As I’ve written before on these pages, when it comes to presidential elections, Americans prefer the Devil We Know. If we elect a guy to the White House once, we generally do it a second time (or, in the case of FDR, a third and a fourth). Incumbency is an enormous advantage. Since Grover Cleveland was elected president for the second time, besting one-termer Benjamin Harrison and his Santa Claus beard in the election of 1892 to become the only Chief Executive to serve non-consecutive terms, there have been only five men elected president once who failed to win re-election: Taft, Hoover, Carter, Bush I, and Donald John Trump.

Sitting presidents have only lost re-election in extraordinary circumstances. Popular third party candidates siphoned votes away from Taft and Bush—who, with his top-of-the-ticket running mate Ronald Reagan, played footsie with Iran to torpedo Carter in 1980. Hoover and Trump, meanwhile, were miserable failures.

Joe Biden is not a failure; on the contrary, he is the best president of my lifetime, even if not enough voters have made this realization. Neither Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. nor Andrew Yang nor Marianne Williamson are going to hemorrhage significant votes away from him if they run independently from the left. If there is a dangerous third party candidate on the ballot in 2024, it will be Trump, if he is denied the Republican nomination; that will only weaken an already-weak GOP ticket.

Also, beating Biden requires that the Republicans choose a nominee capable of beating Biden. In the MAGA-infused GOP, that is a tall order. Who is crazy enough to get through the primary, but normal enough to win the general? Here is a snapshot of the presumed candidates, ranked according to their betting odds.1 A gambling operation is an imperfect way of guessing who may top the ticket—their job is to avoid big losses, not to predict the future—but of late, professional oddsmakers tend to have a better handle on this kind of thing than pollsters.

Donald Trump, -200

Even with all the brewing legal troubles, even with his dismal record in the Oval Office, even with his now-undeniable history of sexual assault, even with his shameless simping for Russia, the FPOTUS remains the prohibitive favorite to win the nomination. “Minus 200” means you’d have to plonk down $100 to win $50. The thing is, Trump will never not be running. Even if he’s under indictment, even if he’s convicted, even if he flees to Dubai to avoid the long arm of the law, he will remain a candidate, because campaign donations subsidize his mounting legal bills. So the Former Guy is either the GOP nominee, which is bad for the Republicans, or he forms his own political party and Ross Perots the election, which is even worse for the Republicans. The Rick Wilson Law of The Donald is less absolute than we’d all care to admit—not everything Trump touches dies—but in the case of Republican chances in the ‘24 election, he is a metaphorical shot of arsenic with a Novichok chaser.

Ron DeSantis, +250

Six months ago, the Florida governor looked like a shoo-in for the top of the ticket. Trump was on the ropes, the big donors were circling him like cigar-chomping vultures, he enjoyed the public support of both Rupert Murdoch and Leonard Leo, and, as Moscow Never Sleeps explained on the PREVAIL podcast, he boasts huge institutional advantages in his home state, which happens to have more electoral votes than any state except Texas and California. Then he started campaigning. He has all the charm of a colostomy bag. His wife is Evita without charisma. He immediately shrivels under the tiniest amount of pressure from the press (who, outside of Tallahassee, are actually allowed to ask him non-softball questions). And have you heard him speak? Plus, his “antiwoke” agenda is almost comically fascist, he’s tight with Matt Gaetz and all that implies, he was allegedly involved with some disgustingly sadistic behavior when he was a JAG at Gitmo, and, because he thought it would increase his popularity, he picked a fight with the most popular corporation in the United States (which also happens to be his state’s largest employer). He is a Mickey Mouse candidate who has declared war on Mickey Mouse.

Nikki Haley, +2000

When Haley formally put her name in the hat in February, her odds moved from +1800 to +1000. Now her odds are twice as long. She abruptly resigned from her position as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations the day after the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi, which, even in the moment, raised eyebrows. Since then, she has popped up here and there to make some bland, spineless, focus-group-tested remark she hopes will keep her in the public eye. The thinking is that she is angling to become Trump’s running mate. But…why would he choose her? Does she even help him? Where is her constituency? Does anyone actually like her?

Tim Scott, +2800

He’s young, he’s solidly conservative without being full-blown-MAGA, and he’s less sketchy than his fellow senator from South Carolina, but even when the Republican voters’ preternatural capacity for cognitive dissonance is taken into account, I’m not sure a party that openly courts white supremacists and neo-Nazis would put a Black man at the top of the ticket.

Tucker Carlson, +4000

The former Fox News talking head is the only name on this list who could conceivably defeat Trump. But does Tucker Carlson want to run? Although he’s been a public figure for decades now, we know very little about his private life. Given his tight relationships with dead pimps and active dictators, not to mention whatever he and Matt Gaetz got up to at dinner that night and a thousand other things we have yet to hear about, I’m not so sure Bowtie McFishstick would welcome the high-wattage spotlight of the national and international press.

Mike Pence, +4000

This sad lump of meh has had one lone shining moment of genuine heroism in a political career otherwise marked by dunderheaded religious fervor, catastrophic administrative failure, and bootlicking subservience rarely encountered outside bondage clubs or that scene from Pulp Fiction, and all he’s done since is try to pretend it didn’t happen. He was the head of Trump’s White House coronavirus task force that wound up killing a million Americans—which is to be expected from the governor responsible for an HIV outbreak in his state. Remember when he stormed out of Hamilton? Or when the fly landed on his head like his hair was a pile of white shit? The Evangelicals still like him, I suppose, but Trump will break him like a blue-eyed piñata.

Mike Pompeo, +4000

This pompous traitor has already bowed out.

Charlie Baker, +5000

Like Mitt Romney, he is a former Republican governor of Massachusetts. Like Mitt Romney, he is loaded. Like Mitt Romney, he presents as a “normal” Republican. Unlike Mitt Romney, he is not a household name. I had to Google him, which is not the greatest sign for the prospects of Charlie Baker. Also, he’s not crazy enough to appeal to enough GOP voters to get through the Republican primary.

Kristi Noem, +5000

This is the one who concerns me the most. She’s young, she’s a woman, she’s attractive, she likes guns, she’s popular in her state, and no one seems to remember her idiotic public health policy that turned South Dakota, of all places, into a covid-19 hot zone. Noem is the sort of candidate who could give Biden real trouble in the general. With that said, a misogynist political party that has more or less declared war on women is unlikely to run one for president.

Larry Hogan, +5000

Charlie Baker with slightly more name recognition.

Liz Cheney, +5000

There was a moment in history when the Republican Party could have pivoted away from Trump, purged itself of insurrectionist-happy traitors, and returned to its previous stance of being all-in on the fossil fuel industry. That moment was during the first impeachment. Heck, this might have worked during the second impeachment, too. Had that happened, Liz Cheney would have been the de facto leader of the GOP, its presumptive presidential nominee, and, probably, the 47th POTUS; a Gen X woman would present a serious challenge in the general to an old white guy. But as it stands now, the Republicans would sooner run Hillary or Nancy than Liz.

Others, +6500

Oddsmakers give following retreads, longshots, and fascists have the same slim chance of winning the nomination: Mitt Romney, Josh Hawley, Paul Ryan, Greg Abbott, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Dan Crenshaw, and—wait for it—Ivanka Trump. Betting on any of these losers is like setting your cash on fire.

Yes, Biden will be a few weeks shy of 82 on Election Day 2024—by far the oldest candidate ever to run. Yes, the Republicans will amplify his every gaffe, doing whatever they can to portray him as a senile old fart. Given Biden’s age, Kamala Harris will be more of a factor than most running mates, as the chances of her assuming the presidency at some point during the second Biden term are high; the GOP will continue to attack her with disinformation campaign after disinformation campaign, making the election all about her. And, while the first term has gone better than anyone could have hoped for, we are one major crisis away from everything falling to pieces. So we cannot be complacent. We must get out the vote in vast numbers.

Even so: If history is any guide, as long as he is alive and reasonably sentient, Biden will win re-election in 2024. The smart money’s on Joe.

Photo credit: Gage Skidmore. Governor Ron DeSantis speaking with attendees at the 2021 Student Action Summit hosted by Turning Point USA at the Tampa Convention Center in Tampa, Florida.

Odds as of April 24, 2023, at DraftKings Sportsbook via SportsBettingDime.